Congress has given itself until Dec. 22 to produce a new budget, but Bruce Oppenheimer, professor of political science, says that’s not a guarantee that a deal will be made. Here’s what he’s going to be watching for:
How long will Congress drag this out?
If Congress can’t come to an agreement by the 22nd, legislators may be tempted to try to avoid a shutdown by passing聽another continuing resolution to keep the government open while negotiations continue. Oppenheimer said this has its risks鈥攅specially if they give themselves too much time. 鈥淭he shorter a continuing resolution, the easier it is to keep people on board without having to add all kinds of extras,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he longer it goes, the more 鈥榞immes鈥� get tacked on, and that makes it even harder to come to an agreement.鈥�
There are pros and cons to buying more time, Oppenheimer said, noting that a looming deadline is sometimes the best way for individual legislators or caucuses to push pet projects or unpopular provisions through. 鈥淲hen you鈥檝e got a bill you have to pass, people tend to try to hold things hostage,鈥� he said.
Taking more time聽gives Republicans more time to build consensus among their own party, but it also means the risk of having to make an unpalatable last-minute deal with Democrats if their votes still come up short. 鈥淭he more the Republicans concede to the Freedom Caucus鈥� demands, the less likely Democrats will sign on,鈥� he said. 鈥淚n that case, the price (of passage) may have to be to keep auxiliary issues out, such as funding for the border wall.鈥�
However, Oppenheimer said, the Republicans also face the extra challenge of ensuring that the budget doesn鈥檛 undermine any promises they made to pass their tax bill. 鈥淔or example, there are commitments to Senator Collins that senators need to include,鈥� he said.
The government shuts down. Whose fault is it?
History suggests voters will place the blame on congressional Republicans, said Oppenheimer, as they did during the shutdowns under Clinton and Obama. This was true both when Congress failed to pass a budget on time, as it did under Obama, and when Congress was unable to override Clinton’s veto.
What鈥檚 more interesting this time around is that there鈥檚 a unified government鈥攎eaning the blame could potentially fall to Trump if he doesn鈥檛 like the deal congressional Republicans made. 鈥淚f the budget doesn鈥檛 have funding for the border wall, will Trump veto it? And if he does, will he be blamed for it?”
Nobody wants to be a Grinch
However Congress ends up trying to pass the budget, legislators are likely to do their best to avoid a Christmas shutdown, Oppenheimer said. 鈥淥ne, it鈥檚 hard to get enough representatives to come back during the holidays to resolve it; and two, it鈥檚 such a slow media season that the shutdown will be the only story in Washington,鈥� he said. 鈥淏esides, they don鈥檛 want to be blamed for ruining the holidays.鈥�